A reference in a recent magazine article to the monty hall problem left readers scratching their heads. But it was not until thursday afternoon that a truly realistic simulation of the problem was conducted. It turns out the true explanation, based on conditional probabilities or bayesian reasoning. In her book the power of logical thinking, vos savant 1996, p. In this video, bryce gessell duke university explains why it seems. The monty hall problem is one of those rare curiosities a mathematical. The monty hall problem is not a probability puzzle arxiv. Those intrigued by the original monty hall problem will find that this book is a. We also share information about your use of our site with our social media. Maximum entropy and bayesian inference for the monty hall problem. Ron clarke takes you through the puzzle and explains the counterintuitive answer. The experiment took place at the beverly hills home of monty hall, the host of 4,500. The monty hall problem is a brain teaser, in the form of a probability puzzle, loosely based on. The standard explanation to the monty hall probability problem is not only imprecise but also wrong.
One aspect of statistics is determining how much information is needed to have confiidence in a theory. The author marilyn vos savant, was, according to the guiness book of records at the. The monty hall problem or threedoor problem is a famous example of a cognitive illusion, often used to demonstrate peoples resistance and deficiency in dealing with uncertainty. Our findings have applications in the decision making, information theory, bioinformatics, quantum game theory and beyond. An easy answer to the infamous monty hall problem the. We demonstrate that the use of bayesian statistics conforms to the maximum entropy principle in information theory and bayesian approach successfully. Strategic dominance links the monty hall problem to the game theory. Second, if you want to learn probability theory, you could read. The monty hall problem is a famous or rather infamous probability puzzle.
1232 184 684 65 1526 185 162 610 622 1357 277 1510 626 349 530 908 383 712 1552 323 1376 521 500 373 108 861 592 36 551 1008 655 362